Fantasy Baseball: Position Prep - CF
On to Centerfielders!
I’m going to break outfielders apart into centerfielders and corner outfielders. The format is going to remain similar to that of my SS rankings. If an OF has CF eligibility, I will only rank them in this article and not again when doing corner.
1st Round
Aaron Judge - LF/CF/RF - NYY
Judge is a no-brainer top-3 pick, and for good reason. He’s the only surefire center fielder going in the first round, and his elite production justifies the price. A return to right field should help keep him healthy, which is all fantasy managers need to see another MVP-caliber season. If you draft him, you're banking on another 10 WAR campaign, something only a handful of players can even dream of.
ADP - 3.3 - High of 3 (Yahoo, RTS, NFBC)
Corbin Carroll - CF/RF - ARI
While many are high on Carroll, I’m not convinced he’s worth his ADP price tag. He’s undeniably a dynamic player, but at this draft spot, I see better options. Waiting on a center fielder in the next few rounds could yield comparable or even superior value.
If he returns to his 2023 ROY form, this pick will be more than justified. However, I expect Carroll to land somewhere between his electric rookie season and his disappointing 2024 campaign.
He profiles as a .260-.270 hitter rather than the .285 mark he posted as a rookie. His home run total should stay in the 20-25 range, and his speed remains elite—his stolen bases will be his best asset. But across the board, his skills range from average to slightly above average, making his first-round status feel a bit rich.
Instead of diving in at pick 10, I’d much rather take someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Francisco Lindor here and revisit CF in the next tier. If Carroll were going in the Julio Rodríguez range, who I'll discuss next, I’d be much more interested.
ADP 10 - High of 9 (NFBC)
2nd-3rd Round
Jackson Merrill - CF - SDP
After Judge, this is my next center field target. I’m surprised he’s going later than Julio Rodríguez, Jackson Chourio, Jarren Duran, and Jazz Chisholm. I’d consider Merrill as early as pick 15—right in the mix with Rodríguez.
Merrill led this group in batting average and RBIs and tied Jazz for the most home runs. He had the fewest steals (16), but his 81st-percentile sprint speed suggests there's room for improvement. He may have been more conservative on the bases because of the talent surrounding him in San Diego’s lineup. Slotted to hit third between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, Merrill has a dream lineup spot, setting him up for big run production.
If there’s a knock on Merrill, it’s the risk of a sophomore slump—just ask Corbin Carroll. That said, Merrill’s advanced metrics tell a much different story. His xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG were all elite, suggesting his breakout was fully supported by underlying data. Unlike Chourio and Carroll, who outperformed their expected stats in their rookie seasons, Merrill’s profile signals sustained success. His strong contact skills (low K and Whiff rates) further cement his floor.
With an ADP of 28.8, this is incredible value. If he improves his walk rate, he could be a five-category force. I have no issue taking him ahead of JRod and the others in this tier.
ADP - 28.8 - High of 26 (RTS, NFBC)
Julio Rodriguez - CF - SEA
I’m not in love with J-Rod at his current ADP. His batting average has been remarkably steady across three seasons, but the rest of his production has been far less consistent. If he slips into the 20s in your draft, I’d be much more interested, but in the mid-to-late teens, I see better options.
A 20/20 season feels like a lock, which is great, but his runs and RBIs haven’t been where you’d expect for a player of his caliber. A big part of the problem? Seattle’s lineup. The Mariners boast one of the best five-man rotations in baseball, but they’ll be fighting for run support on a lot of nights. I’m penciling J-Rod in for another .275 average with close to 30 homers, but I don’t see his supporting cast elevating his counting stats.
Looking at his surroundings, I have doubts. Robles, Raleigh, and Arozarena are key pieces, but I don’t see them collectively matching or surpassing their recent production. In Arozarena’s case, last year’s numbers might just be the new norm. Betting against the Rays’ ability to move on from declining talent has rarely paid off.
I like Julio the player, but his situation doesn’t justify a mid-teens ADP. The talent is undeniable, but I see him falling short of his 2023 output.
ADP - 15.3 - High of 13 (NFBC)
Jarren Duran - LF/CF - BOS
Jarren Duran’s breakout at 27 cemented him as a premier fantasy asset, especially in redraft formats. While dynasty and deep keeper league managers may prefer younger, higher-ceiling CF options in this range, Duran’s current skill set makes him an elite short-term contributor, right on par with Jackson Chourio for 2024 value.
Slated to hit leadoff in front of Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman, Duran is in a prime position to pile up runs. If he sustains his .285+ batting average, which seems likely given his strong contact skills and elite speed, he could exceed his impressive 2024 production.
What makes Duran even more intriguing is the potential for a stolen base surge. He swiped 34 bags last season, but his 96th-percentile sprint speed suggests he could push that total into the 40-50 range with more aggressiveness on the basepaths.
Beyond that, Duran’s league-leading doubles and triples highlight his elite gap-to-gap power. If even a fraction of those extra-base hits turn into home runs or additional steals, he could easily outproduce his current ADP, making him one of the best value picks at the position.
ADP - 20.8 - High of 20 (RTS & NFBC)
Jackson Chourio - LF/CF/RF - MIL
It is just so exhilarating to see a guy perform as Chourio did at just 20 years old. In dynasty leagues, I’d give up an arm and a leg—maybe even two—to get him. But in redraft? I’m a little more hesitant at his current price.
The biggest concern? His advanced metrics closely resemble Corbin Carroll’s rookie season. And as Carroll showed last year, sophomore slumps are very real. While hitting at the top of a strong Milwaukee lineup is a plus, a 21-year-old facing big-league adjustments has a higher likelihood of experiencing regression.
Beyond his elite sprint speed, nothing in Chourio’s underlying metrics truly jumps off the page. His 86th-percentile xBA was solid, and he does hit the ball hard while spraying it to all fields.
But his low launch angle means he relies more on groundball singles than some of his counterparts, a trait that often leads to inconsistent results.
Chourio’s talent is undeniable, and it’s easy to assume he’ll keep getting better. But the safer bet is that he faces some growing pains over the next year or two. At an ADP of 19.3, I’d prefer a more proven commodity in this range.
ADP - 19.3 - High of 18 (RTS, NFBC)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 3B/CF - NYY
There’s a lot to like from the roughly 50-game sample we saw of Jazz in New York. Some players simply thrive under the spotlight, and Chisholm looks to be one of them. But while the move to the Bronx has its benefits, I don’t think it suddenly transforms him into a .270+ hitter. More than likely, he settles back into his .250 range, only now, he has Aaron Judge batting right behind him.
That alone could be a game-changer. Over a full season in New York, 90+ runs feels like a safe bet, and 30 homers are suddenly in play. His power-speed profile remains near elite status, and with 40 steals last season, he remains a multi-category asset. Add in 3B eligibility, and his positional flexibility only boosts his value in fantasy lineups.
Still, Jazz remains an enigma. Situation matters a lot in sports, and the Yankee lineup certainly elevates his potential. But is he fundamentally different from the streaky, toolsy player we saw in Miami? His advanced metrics remain underwhelming, and while his raw athleticism is undeniable, his underlying numbers don’t scream breakout.
That said, if he delivers 90+ runs, 25 homers, and another 40 steals, you won’t be complaining at his current ADP. He’s easily the biggest wild card within the first 100 picks—maybe in the entire draft.
ADP - 26.5 - High of 22 (RTS, NFBC)
4th-5th Round
Oneil Cruz - SS/CF - PIT
Cruz feels like a ticking time bomb—a player who could explode into superstardom at any moment. After missing nearly all of 2023 with a broken leg, he showed across-the-board improvements last season. But with nearly double the plate appearances compared to 2022, some variance was to be expected.
In many ways, Cruz is a prototype of the modern power-speed player. A true five-tool talent if he can put it all together. But two glaring issues hold him back: Strikeouts – He still chases too often, limiting his consistency and Launch Angle – Despite 100th percentile bat speed and elite exit velocity, his low launch angle (27th percentile) undercuts his natural power.
Those numbers are wild. 100th percentile bat speed. 99th percentile exit velo. 97th percentile barrel rate. 97th percentile hard-hit rate. Yet somehow, only 21 home runs? That speaks volumes about how much raw power is going untapped. His xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG all being comfortably above average suggests his floor is solid, but the lack of elevation keeps him from unlocking his true ceiling.
Can he fix it?
Adjusting launch angle isn’t as simple as tweaking a swing, it can disrupt a hitter’s entire approach. Some players make it work, but others see major regression when they try. If Cruz does find the right adjustment, his potential is in the sky is the limit category.
Once the top-tier CFs are off the board, Cruz is one of the best upside plays left. He’s a mid-round lottery ticket, and if he ever does put it all together, there may be another MVP in Pittsburgh—one not named Andrew McCutchen. His SS/CF eligibility adds versatility, but realistically, he’s more of a utility option than a primary starter at either position for most fantasy teams.
ADP - 47.3 - High of 38 (NFBC)
Wyatt Langford - LF/CF - TEX
Wyatt Langford’s 2023 season was a blur, from starring at Florida to going 4th overall in the draft, then scorching his way through every level of the minors in half a season. The Rangers rewarded him with a spot on their Opening Day roster, and for the first time, Langford finally found a level that challenged him.
After a good but not great rookie season, the question is: How much better can he get? His advanced metrics tell the same story, solid across the board, no glaring weaknesses, which bodes well for his continued development at the plate.
A somewhat unexpected area with room for a lot of growth? Steals. Langford clocked in at the 98th percentile in sprint speed, yet swiped just 19 bases. Maybe his baserunning instincts aren’t elite, or maybe it’s a team philosophy issue - Texas did rank 20th in MLB in steals. If the latter, you’d hope they loosen the reins on a weapon like Langford.
It feels like an inevitability that Langford develops into a batting average machine, whether that happens this year or next. His price tag is reasonable considering his upside, and if his Texas teammates rebound from a down year, this lineup could explode in 2025.
ADP - 48.3 - High of 41 (RTS, NFBC)
Michael Harris II - CF - ATL
Michael Harris is the classic case of a better real-life player than a fantasy asset, and at his current ADP, I’m completely out. After three seasons, we know who he is: a high-average hitter with decent speed, limited power, and middling counting stats.
His career highs? 19 HRs, 64 RBIs, 76 runs, 20 SBs, none of which came last season. That’s fine, but not special. So why is he getting drafted this high? I think it's because he won ROY three years ago and plays for the Braves.
I fully expect Atlanta’s offense to rebound in 2025, but I don’t see Harris surpassing his career bests. He’s currently going half a pick ahead of Gerrit Cole?! And I genuinely have no idea why. If I’m building an actual MLB team, I’d love his batting average and defense, but for fantasy? He’s not a top-100 fantasy player.
His advanced metrics are solid, and he did have a great September batting leadoff. That said, projections have him hitting 5th to start the year—an improvement from last year, where he spent a lot of time buried in the lineup. Maybe that small change proves me dead wrong. But after 350+ MLB games, I think we have a pretty clear picture of who Michael Harris is.
ADP - 50 - High of 36 (NFBC)
The 8th Round
There are 4 CFs that are all going in the 8th round of 12-team drafts on average, and they all have the potential to be gigantic steals at their current ADP. I’ll start with the most familiar name of the bunch.
Mike Trout - CF - LAA
It just feels wrong seeing Trout here. Fish man still good when he’s healthy; that just has been so rare that you simply have to expect missed time now. Over the last four seasons, he’s played just 266 of a possible 648 games. That’s 41% of games played—you simply have to expect missed time now.
Despite the injuries, Trout’s skills haven’t slipped. His advanced metrics remain elite, proving that if he stays healthy, he’s still one of the best hitters in baseball.
Even in just 29 games last year, he launched 10 HRs—a 55-homer pace over a full season. His .220 average was ugly, but there’s little doubt he would’ve corrected that with more at-bats.
In an effort to keep him on the field, the Angels are shifting Trout from CF to RF and (hopefully) giving him plenty of DH days. If they prioritize his bat over his glove, they might just salvage his season—and theirs.
For the first time in over a decade, Trout’s ADP is at a discount. Some teams will happily take the plunge, hoping for a league-winning steal. Others will watch him land on the IL by June and regret the risk. Draft accordingly.
ADP - 99.8 - High of 90 (RTS)
Luis Robert Jr. - CF - CWS
After a power-hungry 2023 where Robert Jr. blasted 38 HRs, he was met with a difficult 2024. Hurt early in the year and forced to miss 2 months and then to return to a historically bad team. It’s not a huge surprise to see fairly mediocre results.
Robert had looked like an elite hitter in the early 2020s as he finished 2nd in ROY voting after the shortened 2020 season. With hindsight, he likely wins that over Kyle Lewis. Perhaps a result of the serious hip injuries - a complete tear of his hip flexor in 2021 and now a strain in 2024 that took him out for 2 months. Mix in a handful of injuries leading to missed time over 2022 and 2023, and you have an extraordinarily injury-prone player.
He’s not a player I will be targeting at his price tag, but it cannot be argued that a return to that magical 2023 form and you have a steal on your hands. There is just so much working against it at this point that if it were to work out, saying you had lightning strike in a bottle would feel like a major understatement.
ADP - 88.8 - High of 77 (NFBC)
Riley Greene - LF/CF/RF - DET
This is another guy I’m really excited to see this year. For me, he’s my main target in this group. He took a big step forward last season, and I hope to see that trend continue this year. His advanced metrics are fantastic and really lend themself well to Greene having figured out this level.
Greene ranked 83rd percentile or better in:
xwOBA
xSLG Exit Velocity
Barrel % & Hard-Hit %
Launch Angle & Bat Speed
Chase % & Walk Rate
That’s elite company. He’s figuring out big-league pitching, and heading into his age-24 season, the breakout window is wide open.
Detroit is on the rise, but this lineup isn’t exactly murderers’ row. Greene projects to hit second between Gleyber Torres and Wenceel Perez, which is not the most inspiring table-setter/protection duo. I wouldn’t be shocked if Kerry Carpenter moves up in the order, especially against righties.
I love Greene at his ADP. Even without much stolen base upside, he’s set to contribute in four key categories. Betting on upticks in AVG, HRs, and RBIs makes sense, but run production could be capped. That said, for a borderline top-100 pick, he’s well worth the investment.
ADP - 101.5 - High of 86 (Fantrax)
Cody Bellinger - 1B/CF/RF - NYY
I love what Bellinger brings to NY, and I think it could revitalize him even further. There’s always the perception of a lefty boost in Yankee Stadium, and Belly has the tools to be a huge beneficiary of that. Having played in two massive markets already, I really can foresee him thriving as a Yankee.
He’s projected to hit third, sandwiched between Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt. While Goldy is aging, I have him pegged as a bit of a sleeper at 1B, as I have him pegged for somewhat of a renaissance year in New York. If things click, this Yankees lineup could be dangerous, and their improved defense might even translate into more team-wide confidence at the plate.
His advanced metrics took a hit last year, unsurprisingly down from 2023, but still a far cry from his 2021-2022 form, when he looked like a shell of his former self. He’s no longer the MVP-caliber player we saw in pre-2020 LA, but a 100-run, 100-RBI, 30-HR season is within reach. While he’ll likely fall slightly short of that, it remains a realistic ceiling for 2024.
I’d be comfortable drafting Bellinger on the higher end of his ADP. His 2023 production in Chicago (26 HR, .307 AVG, 20 SB) set a strong foundation, and with a more favorable home park and an even better supporting cast, I see a real chance he meets or even exceeds those numbers. A mid-round selection with legitimate upside, Bellinger has the potential to be a key fantasy asset in 2024.
ADP - 94 - High of 78 (Yahoo)
Late Rounders
The last section here I will take a look at 3 CFs going in the 10th round or later that I think could be in for strong seasons.
Colton Cowser - LF/CF/RF - BAL
After an impressive rookie season that saw The Milkman finish second in ROY voting, it’s surprising he’s not generating more buzz like his fellow Orioles. Slotted to hit fifth behind Gunnar, Adley, Mullins, and Westburg, Cowser will have plenty of chances to surpass last year’s 69 RBIs in a stacked lineup.
On another team with less young talent, expectations for a former fifth overall pick entering his age-25 season would likely be through the roof. Instead, Cowser gets to develop without the burden of being “the guy”—a luxury that could allow him to take a leap forward as a key piece of Baltimore’s machine.
His .230 xBA and high K-rate raise concerns, but they’re hardly dealbreakers in today’s MLB. Meanwhile, his xSLG, average exit velocity, and elite 90th-percentile barrel rate hint at serious upside. If he can refine his approach, he could emerge as an even bigger threat in one of baseball’s best young lineups.
ADP - 158.3 - High of 149 (NFBC)
Jung-hoo Lee - CF - SFG
Lee’s MLB debut didn’t go as planned, as he managed just 37 games before labrum surgery ended his season. But for a player adjusting from the batting average paradise of the KBO, his .262 debut mark in the big leagues was quietly impressive—and it’s a number I expect to rise sharply in Year 2.
Power isn’t his game, but Lee’s skill set still translates well to fantasy. He’ll pile up runs and RBIs in the heart of San Francisco’s lineup, and his above-average sprint speed should help him rack up extra-base hits, especially taking advantage of Oracle Park’s quirky right-field gaps. His stolen base success rate was rough in Year 1 (2-for-5), but if he can improve his efficiency, a 20-30 steal season is well within reach.
Slotted third between Willy Adames and Matt Chapman, Lee won’t have an elite supporting cast, but those two still provide enough protection to keep him productive. A double-digit home run season isn’t impossible, but expect closer to 8-9 bombs with a realistic batting average of .285-.295—and if he stays locked into that No. 3 spot, he should comfortably clear 85+ runs and RBIs.
There’s untapped upside here, and if he takes the expected step forward, Lee could be one of this year’s biggest batting average steals. At his current price tag, I see him being well worth the pick late in drafts when far fewer players have the potential to be dominant in any single category.
ADP - 275.8 - High of 233 (NFBC)
Jesus Sanchez - LF/CF/RF - MIA
Currently, Sanchez is not ranked inside Yahoo’s top 395 players; he is inside the top 300 on the other 3 sites, but this is a player you can pull off the scrap heap in most cases.
His advanced metrics compare favorably to players being taken hundreds of picks earlier, but there’s one glaring problem: The Marlins are projected to be a 100-loss team. There’s little talent around him, making it tough to project much run production or RBI support. If Sanchez were on nearly any other team in the division, he’d probably be going 100 picks higher.
That said, he’s not without upside. Every year, someone on a bad team puts together a surprise breakout, and Sanchez’s underlying numbers suggest he has the tools to do it. He’s not a must-draft, and you’re probably better off taking a high-upside prospect, but if you need a late-round flier in deeper leagues, he’s absolutely worth a stash.
ADP - 262.3 - High of 245 (NFBC) - Only using 3 instead of 4 sites for ADP
