Fantasy Baseball: Position Prep - 1B

With catchers already covered (You can check that out here), we head on to 1B. A historically strong position filled with mashers is looking a little bare this year. For fantasy purposes, there is a clear upper echelon that is a cut above the rest. As I stated in the first of these segments, this will be looking at who the best value picks are at 1B.

1 - Alec Bohm - 1B/3B - PHI

Unlike the catcher position, I see the best value pick being a guy you won’t need to spend an overly high pick on. With an average pick of 143.6 across ESPN, Yahoo, RTS, NFBC, and RT Sports he’s outside the first 10 rounds in 12 team leagues! The highest anyone has him going is ESPN at 86, the rest are all below his average. In his last 3 seasons, he’s batting just under .280 across and he has 97 RBI each of the last 2 seasons. Bohm does have a higher xBA each of his last 3 seasons but has a low average launch angle which is presumably hurting him in the power category.

Last season saw Bohm in the 95th percentile for Squared Up% showing he is making great contact and with maybe a slight tweak to his swing could see some improvement in the HR category although I wouldn’t expect him to surpass 30.

However, since he has a strong BA I’d assume he’d more than likely have a don’t fix what ain’t broke mentality.

Bohm does a fantastic job not striking out being in the 92nd percentile for K%; his OBP isn’t remarkable and could be higher with how he limits K’s but avoiding them does theoretically provide more opportunity for a positive result.

Lastly, he only played 15 games at 1B last year and it’s well within the possibility he won’t have 1B eligibility next season. However, 3B has become a bit of a weaker position than in years past so his value may be even better used there.

2- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B/3B - TOR

I had a harder time making this pick as I see Bohm as severely underrated at his current ADP versus much more fairly ranked players elsewhere. That said, as a Blue Jays fan I just have to put Guerrero here.

He does everything well with a bat in his hand.

You’d love to see more HR’s from him than the 29.3 he’s averaged over the last 3 seasons. He more than makes up for it with an elite BA and OBP. Not that 30 HRs is bad by any stretch.

Anything better than his last 3 seasons going in the direction towards his 2021 year and he’s a borderline steal even at his current average ADP of 13.2.

ESPN again is the highest ADP at 9 while the rest fall in from 12th-16th. Batting 2nd in Toronto’s lineup gives him plenty of opportunity while once again being on a 1-year deal Vladdy will have the financial incentive to play his best ball and earn what is likely to be another absolutely massive MLB contract, wherever he ends up in 2026. His only fantasy weakness is his lack of speed which predominantly hurts his SBs but that’s a category not normally associated with 1B anyway. His run totals don’t seem to be hindered at all but I can’t help but wonder what they could look like with even average baserunning value.

I think picking at the end of the 1st round right now is a very desirable spot to be in and wouldn’t bat an eye taking say Vlad and anyone really in the 10-15 range in whatever order makes sense; guys like Skenes, Skubal, Elly, and Alvarez all feel you’re off to a hot start.

3 - Vinnie Pasquantino - 1B - KCR

‘The Pasquatch’ has big potential. I am excited for KC this year and expect him to improve upon his 19 HR and 97 RBI from last year. Expected to hit 3rd behind India and Witt Jr. Pasquantino holds a valuable spot in the lineup and still has Sal Perez behind him, so a boost to his 64 runs isn’t out of the question. With a nickname like Pasquatch to me, I expect your prototypical 3 true outcome slugger. That is not who Vinnie is.

Vinnie is batting .267 across his 985 MLB ABs and hit .262 last year in his first full season. His power is there but KC hurt him slightly last year - only in Boston and Oakland were his adjusted xHR lower than in KC. In just about every other park he’d have been at least a 20+ HR guy (CHC & ARI were the same) with a massive jump had he been a Red up to 33. Fun to look at but at the end of the day he is a Royal. That said, Fangraphs projects him up to 25 HRs with a slight uptick in BA as well. Pasquantino was also 96th percentile in both K% and Whiff% in 2024 while being 92nd percentile in Squared Up%; a combination that bodes well for future success.

Pasquantino’s average ADP is 107.8 good for a 9th-round pick in 12 team leagues. His highest being 96th with ESPN the rest falling between 101-116. Landing Vinnie around the middle of your draft sets you up for success as I’d expect you have some top-flight talent in other key areas that have far steeper drop-offs after the high-end players have gone.

Interestingly, only on ESPN is Bohm’s ADP above Pasquantino’s (87 vs 96), every other site listed here has Bohm going 30-50 picks later so while I would be inclined to wait and let Pasquantino go first you have to assess based on your draft how you would want to proceed here.

4 - Bryce Harper - 1B - PHI

There’s only one reason Harper isn’t higher here and it’s that I don’t really want to spend a 1st or a 2nd round pick on a 1B. Vlad, you at least have the 1B/3B flexibility, but you don’t get that luxury here. Although there have been some injuries hampering his counting stats, Harper now has not hit 90 RBI since 2019 when he had 114. His HR totals are good and you’d expect him to break 30 any given year. He should hit over .280 and walk lots with a chance at .400+ OBP.

Harper’s average ADP is 20.6 with a high of 19. He’s gone by the end of the 2nd round in 12-team leagues without fail. For the most part, it feels safe. I would have a hard time looking at Ronald Acuna Jr. who’s going about 10 picks later across the board and is expected back in May following a tough 50 games and a torn ACL last year. Even Harper’s teammates, Zack Wheeler and Trea Turner have been going in similar draft spots and are in position groups with much steeper drop-offs in later rounds.

5 - Alec Burleson - 1B/LF/RF - STL

This is the kind of pick that gets me really excited. Burleson is expected to man the 2-hole to start the year. He was primarily an OF/DH last year with just enough 1B to be eligible. With Goldie in NY, I think we could see him get some more time there but a primary DH seems most likely. Last year was Burlesons first full season getting in 152 games after 102 in 2023. He hit .269 with 21 HRs, 78 RBIs and 71 Runs. At 26 years old I think he’s blossoming into what will be a very good MLB player.

His Savant isn’t remarkable but he was above average in most offensive metrics.

I am looking for progression in most of these areas and with that, you’re looking at a player whose value will far surpass his ADP alongside improvements to his counting stats as well.

Burleson has an average ADP of 195.2 with a high of 146 (ESPN). It’s a big range but I’d be thrilled to snag him later than the 12th round.

6 - Matt Olson - 1B- ATL

I think Olson’s massive 2023 will remain more of an outlier but you’ll get a strong year out of Olson regardless. His upside keeps him ahead of the next guy on the list although I wouldn’t be shocked to see them with comparable lines at season’s end. At their best, Atlanta has an absolutely potent lineup and Olson can be a major provider in that. A reasonable pick that I’d be fine with after the 2nd round turn.

ADP - 30.8 - High of 23 (Yahoo)

7 - Christian Walker - 1B - HOU

I am a Christian Walker truther. If he was still going over pick 100 I think I’d have him #1 on the list. Now in Houston and expected to man the clean-up spot I’m hoping some of their ‘magic’ to wear off on him and not whatever happened to Jose Abreu. However, there looks to be too many deeper talents at 1B to have him higher than this. He’s a pretty pure slugger, bats around .250, he walks pretty well keeping his OBP around .330 with fairly high K totals. He’s steady but unspectacular overall.

ADP - 79.6 - High of 67 (Yahoo)

8 - Paul Goldschmidt - 1B - NYY

I have a sneaking suspicion that Goldie is in for a renaissance year in New York. I think he’ll improve upon all his traditional stats from last year as he finds his game again in pinstripes. He is 37 now so it’s likely last year was the beginning of the end for him. But I think he’s got at least this year still in him. Going as late as he is I think it’s a reasonable flyer and someone who could stick in a UTIL spot potentially.

ADP - 165.4 - High of 147 (RTS)

Left Off The List

Freddie Freeman - 1B - LAD

Going on average just 1 pick later than Harper I just cannot justify Freeman’s value and I realistically see him as undraftable as a 2nd round talent. His ADP ranges from 18-25 so unless your league views him as I do I can’t get behind picking him there. He was still close to a 5 bWAR player last year and he won the WS MVP so he’s still a great player by all means. I genuinely see far too much talent that should be available 50-100 picks later and that’s massive. Considering Freeman dealt with some minor injuries, had a down regular season, and will be 35 this year, I do not see the price tag being worth it.

I do want to emphasize I don’t expect him to be terrible, he’s going to hit 3rd behind Ohtani and Betts still so it’d be hard to imagine him completely falling off a cliff. I am just of the mind that he’s not going to surpass his stats from last year and, more than likely continue some level of regression and I could forsee him getting more rest this year as the Dodgers are a very analytical franchise that isn’t afraid to play it safe.

ADP - 21.6 - High of 18 (Yahoo)