KFC’s Best Year Yet - A Look at Kyle Connor’s Two-Way Growth
Rahul Sharma - Follow @RSin204 on X / Stats Accurate to April 8th unless noted
Preparing for Takeoff
As the Winnipeg Jets season is coming to an end, I figured it would be an opportunity to comment on key or intriguing players or outcomes of the 2024-2025 season. To start, I want to talk about Kyle Connor and how much of a stand-out season he is having for the Jets.
Those of you who don’t know me, I usually operate in the space of 140-characters and have posted a lot on underlying stats and graphics on X as the season has progressed. So, when I was approached about contributing here, articulating my thoughts in an article is a big shift from my norm, but something I wanted to try.
For context, I grew up a Detroit Red Wings fan. Raised on the brilliance of Lidström, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg. But once they retired and my heart needed a new team to follow, I started paying more attention to the Jets. At the same time, the NHL's analytical (stats, information, data… whatever term you want to use) movement began gaining traction. Suddenly, hockey wasn’t just fast and physical, it was measurable, trackable, and full of data worth diving into.
Kyle Connor
Jets fans have long known who Kyle Connor is: a smooth-skating sniper with elite finishing ability, but someone you might politely describe as selective in his defensive commitment. His offensive resume speaks for itself, but was he a true two-way player? That was up for debate.
Is that due to their system? His linemates and competition? Is it his drive or motivation? Would increased defensive awareness diminish his offensive prowess? All those questions are certainly important to consider. So, let’s look closer at the 2024-2025 season and see how much of a shift there has been for Connor.
Starting first with Connor’s primary skillset, his offense. On the surface, you look at Connor’s individual offensive totals, and they are rivaling his 2021-2022 season as his highest career mark.
I don’t think anyone is surprised at his offensive proficiency this year. He is above PPG while flirting with 40 goals (hitting it as of April 10th). These are things Jets fans are familiar with and have come to expect when it comes to KFC. He is currently posting a career-high 5v5 scoring rate, though the margin over his 2020 and 2021 seasons is narrow. His offensive production remains elite, putting him in contention for one of his best NHL point totals, and he's ranked among the league’s top-10 scorers.
Outside of Offense
Observationally, I think Jets fans have noticed a positive change in his all-around or 2-way engagement, displaying more juice on the backcheck and activity in the defensive zone. Now, I’m not suggesting he’s suddenly an elite defensive winger, far from it. However, I think it is important to note that he has not been the liability that we may have been accustomed to over his career, and he is still maintaining that elite offensive production. Is he elite defensively? Probably not. But even being mid instead of a weak spot is a major step in the right direction.
I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t watch or analyze enough NHL hockey to confidently rank Connor among the league’s wingers in terms of two-way play. And to be fair, I think it is a challenge to quantify an individual’s defensive contributions even by commonly used stats. Measures such as xGA (quality chances against) or CA (shot attempts against) are “on-ice” stats and have external influences such as linemates, system, score effects, etc. For instance, if you get paired with an elite defensive forward, that will bleed positively into your on-ice stats, or the opposite, being paired with a poor one. However, what we can do is some benchmarking and comparisons of prior years to determine how much the Jets have improved while he is on the ice.
To set the stage for this, I will be using 5v5 xGA/60 and 5v5 +/- (Goals For subtracted by Goals Against at 5v5 hockey). We want to determine his impact on the rate the Jets allow chances against and how the Jets out-score the opposition while he is on the ice. As mentioned before, teammate influences can bleed into on-ice stats. In Connor’s case, there’s been some consistency that helps limit those variables. The Jets have commonly paired Scheifele and Connor together and have had Hellebuyck in net for nearly a decade. Having fewer year-over-year player personnel changes will give us a much more stable context for comparison. We’re not dealing with drastic changes like comparing results from the Pavelec era, where you’d very reasonably expect a much more noticeable difference in goals against.
2017
The Jets rated well in limiting chances against when Connor was on the ice and achieved a +7 5v5 rating.
2018-2023
With Connor on the ice, the Jets, essentially their top-line, were straddling the line of even to negative
I don’t think many fans would also rate his common center (Mark Scheifele) as a 2-way force either
The Jets were a combined -12 at 5v5 through those 6 seasons while grading higher in rate of chances against with Connor on the ice
Hellebuyck has always been the starting goalie, and Jets fans are familiar with what he represents, so it’s not like a poor goaltender tanked his 5v5 +/-.
2024-25
Shaping up as his best year in terms of 5v5 +/- and 2nd best year in rate of chances against (2017 is marginally better)
I think this speaks to the 2-way engagement that he – and the top-line – have demonstrated through the year.
Despite his increased defensive engagement, his offensive production has remained elite, and Hellebuyck has played at possibly the highest level of his career.
Outscoring the opposition by +19, which is a +21 swing in 5v5 +/- from his per year average from 2018-2023.
With that context in place, let’s now compare Connor’s 2024-25 season to other elite NHL scorers. We will consider the top 20 point scorers as the NHL’s elite.
As you would expect, the Jets with either Scheifele or Connor on the ice grade close in chances against (duh, they play together mostly)
Connor, compared to the other NHL’s elite point scorers, is relatively better at limiting chances against
If you expand to the top-100 NHL scoring Forwards, Connor ranks 28th best in limiting xGA/60
No drop off in offensive production experienced this season with an increase in 2-way engagement
And for comparison’s sake: Connor’s 2021-2022 season, where he finished 13th in NHL scoring, the Jets bled chances against with him on the ice.
Having a top-line that can dominate the competition has always been paramount. They play the most minutes, usually have a good chunk of their ice time against their opponents’ top lines, and are the line a team will rely on overall.
For years, Jets fans have pushed for changes to the top line, often calling for someone other than Kyle Connor to ride shotgun with Mark Scheifele (a debate best saved for another day). But this season has felt different.
While Connor’s offensive talent has never been in question, his play without the puck has often been a sore spot. This year, it’s clear there’s been a noticeable shift. He’s shown greater commitment to the defensive side of the game, and the results have been reflected in that change.
The usual criticisms about the top line giving up as much as it creates don’t carry the same weight this season. It’s been one of their most balanced campaigns in recent memory.
Is it perfect? No. But Connor has taken a step forward in his two-way game, and that deserves to be recognized. Not just as an outlier but as a genuine part of why the top line has been so effective. For all the years of criticism, it's only fair to give credit when a player rounds out their game
Rahul Sharma - Follow @RSin204 on X
Stats courtesy naturalstatrick.com / Stats Accurate to April 8th unless noted
