The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Dilemma
What Letting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walk Means for the Blue Jays
With the news that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will test free agency, the Blue Jays face a crucial decision: trade him now or risk losing him for nothing. While his trade value may have taken a hit with this announcement, the front office must capitalize on his remaining value before the deadline.
In this analysis, we’ll examine whether the Blue Jays should break the bank to retain Guerrero, explore alternative investments, and evaluate realistic trade scenarios.
Guerrero’s Value: An Elite Hitter with Defensive Limitations
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is undeniably an elite hitter, but his defensive contributions are limited. Despite winning a Gold Glove in 2022, his range at first base has been a liability—ranking in just the 2nd percentile in 2024. While he makes strong plays within his limited range, his defensive shortcomings raise an important question: is it worth paying a premium for a first baseman, or would reallocating that money to more impactful positions yield better results?
Being a first baseman, you must accept a lesser defensive talent, but when it comes with a hefty price tag, are you better off taking a lesser talent for less money and investing in premier positions? The Blue Jays have a lot to consider in how they structure their roster moving forward.
First Basemen and World Series Success
Looking at the last four World Series winners provides insight into the importance of first base production:
2024 Dodgers & 2021 Braves – Freddie Freeman Effect
Freeman played a key role in both title runs, offering elite offense and above-average defense (67th percentile in range). The Braves had signed Freeman before his age-24 season to an eight-year, $135 million deal after he finished 5th in MVP voting the previous year. He won the World Series with Atlanta in the final year of that deal while the team was experiencing a proverbial passing of the torch as Ronald Acuña Jr. was becoming a perennial MVP candidate.In LA, Freeman is part of a juggernaut and gets to enjoy a little more of a backseat to Ohtani and Betts while still being a major player in their success. A unique spot for a guy who just had a 4.7 bWAR season and won World Series MVP is that he is beginning to enter the regression era of his career.
2023 Rangers – Functional, Not Flashy
Texas won with Nate Lowe, a solid but unspectacular first baseman. His strengths—high on-base percentage and elite range—came at a modest price ($4 million in 2023, $7.5 million in 2024). Defensively, he has elite range, which helps offset his more average power numbers. This highlights the viability of investing in a cost-effective first baseman while spending elsewhere.2022 Astros – Replacement-Level Production
Houston won with a sub-replacement-level first baseman, Yuli Gurriel. Though he struggled in the regular season, he caught fire in the playoffs, hitting .347 in the postseason compared to .242 in the regular season. His range was in the 9th percentile, and he only hit eight home runs all year. For a 38-year-old on a $7 million deal, Houston wasn’t overly reliant on his production, proving that a team can win without a superstar at the position—provided the roster is strong elsewhere.
The takeaway? Elite first basemen can be valuable, but championship teams have won with cost-effective options as long as other roster spots are maximized.
Trade Considerations: Learning from Juan Soto
A Guerrero trade would likely mirror Juan Soto’s move from San Diego to the Yankees. Like Guerrero, Soto was entering his final year before free agency, and the Padres received a package headlined by MLB-ready talent (Michael King) and promising prospects. However, beyond King, the return has been underwhelming.
The Padres received Michael King, Kyle Higashioka, Jhony Brito, Drew Thorpe, and Randy Vasquez for Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Beyond King, the Padres have not gotten much from the deal. Brito and Vasquez have looked more like bullpen depth, while Higashioka is a veteran backup catcher. Drew Thorpe was ultimately flipped for Dylan Cease, a deal that helped strengthen the Padres' rotation significantly.
A similar trade for Guerrero would likely bring back an MLB-ready player and a mix of young talent, though it may not satisfy fan expectations. Below are two realistic trade proposals that balance immediate and future value.
Trade Proposal #1: Blue Jays & Twins
Blue Jays receive: Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Danny Coulombe, Brandon Winokur
Twins receive: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, Dahian Santos
Why it works:
Blue Jays get: A potential franchise third baseman in Royce Lewis (elite talent but injury-prone), a promising Canadian bat in Julien, a solid lefty reliever in Coulombe, and a high-upside power prospect in Winokur.
Twins get: A star first baseman to solidify their lineup and push for a division title. Their current first base situation with Ty France and Jose Miranda is fine but could be significantly upgraded with Guerrero.
Winokur is a high-upside prospect but a bit of a position mystery. Last year, he played 61 games at SS, 20 in CF, 10 at 3B, and two in RF. With 30-home-run potential in the majors, he makes for an intriguing prospect, even if his ultimate defensive home is still in question.
Trade Proposal #2: Blue Jays & Reds
Blue Jays receive: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Santiago Espinal, Brent Suter, Sal Stewart
Reds receive: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Why it works:
Blue Jays get: A cost-controlled power hitter in Encarnacion-Strand, a familiar face in Espinal for infield depth, a veteran lefty reliever in Suter, and a top-100 prospect in Stewart.
Reds get: A premier bat to anchor their young, exciting lineup.
Encarnacion-Strand looked poised for a big 2024 after an impressive 63-game stretch in 2023, but injuries and inconsistency slowed him down. The Blue Jays would be banking on his upside to replace some of Guerrero’s offensive production while gaining financial flexibility.
Final Thoughts
If Guerrero departs, the Blue Jays must decide whether to overspend to keep him or redistribute those funds to address multiple needs. History suggests that while first basemen can be key contributors, they aren’t necessarily the cornerstone of championship teams.
The best course of action? Move Guerrero at peak value, target MLB-ready contributors, and build a more well-rounded roster. Trading him now ensures the Blue Jays don’t lose a generational hitter for nothing—and positions them for sustainable success in the years ahead.
