Hasek, Roy, Brodeur…Hellebuyck? The Case for Joining Goalie Royalty

Rahul Sharma - Follow @RSin204 on X / Stats Accurate to April 14th unless noted

You may have heard the phrase goaltenders are voodoo - and for good reason. The unpredictability, unreliability, and overall nature of forecasting NHL goaltender ability is notoriously difficult. How often do we see random, or journeyman goalies go on unbelievable runs putting up video-game numbers? Who could forget Ondrej Pavelec in 2014-2015? 

In a world full of uncertainty…ok am being a bit dramatic here…In a position full of high volatility and unpredictability, having a consistent and dependable goaltender provides a major boon for team building. 

Big, positionally sound, and yes, boring (in the best way possible), Hellebuyck gives the Jets exactly what most teams desperately lack: consistency in net. In an era where scoring is up across the league, Hellebuyck hasn’t just held his ground - he has gotten better. While many goalies have trended downward, Hellebuyck has become one of the most dependable netminders in the game.

The chart above shows two lines, Hellebuyck’s save percentage (SV%) in blue and the NHL average SV% in orange, plotted across each season. The bars represent the number of goals Hellebuyck saved compared to the league average SV%, based on facing the same shot volume. For example, in 2016 (his only below-average season), he allowed 10 more goals than league average. In contrast, this season he saved 41 more goals than an average NHL goalie would have given the same workload.

The last 3 years demonstrate how Hellebuyck’s seasons have become continuously more impressive, especially relative to league average. On the surface, this season Hellebuyck has a .925 SV%, which is comparable to 2017-2018. However, the league average has dropped from .912 to .900, which results in Hellebuyck having saved 41 goals above league average, an increase of 17 from 2017.

To hammer home his consistency even further, let’s use an alternate measure of MoneyPuck’s all-situations Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE). This quantifies goals allowed (GA) versus quality of shots the goaltender has faced (xGA).

Over the last 5 years: 16 different goalies had top-5 finishes, 10 goalies appeared once and 6 appeared multiple times. Hellebuyck has 3 first-place finishes (most) and 4 top-5 finishes (most).

When you combine metrics that showcase his prowess in both quantity (SV%) and shot quality (GSAE), Hellebuyck’s regular-season consistency stands out even more. Just imagine the luxury of not having to worry about the most critical position on your team, because year after year, you have a goalie who dominates. That is why I have always considered the Jets a high-floor team. With Hellebuyck in net, they are almost guaranteed to stay competitive in the regular season. Goaltending is their built-in advantage, and few teams can say the same.

Playoffs

When it comes to the playoffs, I am cautious about using these stats to predict future performance. With such a small sample size, one great or poor series can significantly skew the numbers. That said, they still offer a useful snapshot of how Hellebuyck has performed in past postseasons.

As you would expect, NHL playoff SV% tends to be higher than the regular season, after all, the bottom-16 teams are gone. Although, the margins have tightened in recent years. Hellebuyck has been above the playoff average twice: in 2017 and 2020 thanks to his insane performance vs Edmonton. 

Of course, not all the blame falls on him. The team defense in front of him has too often been subpar. However, we absolutely have not seen the usual, consistent, regular-season level of dominance over the competition. I would not read too much into that going forward, though. His full body of work speaks volumes, and it is far more telling than a handful of playoff series.

And maybe I am a prisoner of the moment and a small sample size, but Hellebuyck’s recent play at the 4 Nations tournament, another high-pressure environment, gives me confidence that he is poised for a bounce-back postseason.

Let us not forget: Hellebuyck is running away with the Vezina. Sportsbooks have him listed anywhere from -10,000 to -20,000, and he is even the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy. Fanduel has him at -120, ahead of Leon Draisaitl’s +110. 

Given the season he is having, arguably one of the best by a goalie in the modern era, it raises a fascinating question how does he compare to the modern big-3 of Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur?  

First, let’s consider the landscape of the NHL over the last 40 years: 

The chart above clearly highlights just how much higher scoring the 1980s was compared to the 2000s. This is exactly why comparing raw stats like save percentage or point totals across eras can be tricky. Take Patrick Roy, for example, he played through both extremes. In 10 of his seasons, the league average SV% was below .900; in 8 others, it was above (excluding his lone game in 1984 in this tally) but has always maintained an individual SV% above league average.

To fairly evaluate goalies across different eras, we need to look at how they performed relative to the league averages at the time. So, let’s break it down: we will look at awards, where each goalie ranked in SV% during their seasons, and how their SV% compared to the league average.

Note: Expected Goals data did not exist until quite recently, so you cannot calculate measures using the quality of chances faced.

Sidenote: Hasek is my GOAT goalie: the trophy case, the top-3 finishes, and his dominance relative to the league average during his career are above the rest of the group in my view. 

The first of the two bar charts illustrate each goalie’s career save percentage (grey bar) alongside the NHL average during their active seasons (blue bar). As expected, Patrick Roy’s numbers reflect the high-scoring era he played in, particularly the '80s, with both his personal SV% and the league average coming in lower than the others. 

But when we shift the focus to performance relative to league average, the picture becomes clearer. Roy ranks second only to Dominik Hasek in SV% differential, with a noticeable gap between him and Hellebuyck, who sits third. It is a strong reminder that raw numbers alone don’t tell the full story. Context is everything when comparing across eras.

We can drill this home further by looking into year-by-year granularity, to compare differentials compared to league average by each of the goalie’s seasons played.

In 1993, Dominik Hasek recorded the highest single-season SV% differential of the group, an incredible +0.035 (+3.5%), posting a .930 save percentage when the league average was just .895. Patrick Roy is not far behind; he posted the second-highest differential in 1989. What really sets Roy apart, though, is his remarkable longevity. Year after year, he maintained a high-level of play across multiple eras of NHL offense.

To be fair to Hasek, he did not get his first real shot in the NHL until age 26, appearing in only five games in 1990. So, while his peak was arguably unmatched, his overall career span was/will likely be shorter than the other three.

As shown in the earlier bar chart, Martin Brodeur had the lowest SV% differential relative to league average. But a year-by-year breakdown shows a clearer picture. His final few seasons really dragged down what was once a much stronger average.

Meanwhile, Connor Hellebuyck is steadily climbing into this elite tier. He is trending favorably against the big three and has plenty of runway still ahead. After signing a seven-year extension in 2023, he is positioned to build on an already historic resume. By the end of the 2024–25 season, he will surely claim his third Vezina, tying Roy, and could even add a Hart Trophy, something only seven goalies have ever done.

If his trend continues, Hellebuyck has a legitimate shot at challenging Hasek’s six Vezina wins and maybe even joining The Dominator as the only multi-recipients of the Hart among goaltenders. I don’t often hear the term generational goalie thrown around, but Hellebuyck is the closest thing from the current NHL crop that deserves that acclaim. 

Data sourced from hockey-reference.com, nhl.com, naturalstatrick.com, moneypuck.com

Rahul Sharma - Follow @RSin204 on X